Current statistics for the UK show that over the last year the working age employment rate has remained static at 74.7%. Of concern however is the fact that the overall trend over a two year period has shown a peak in the April 2005 figures and that the direction is indicative of this level falling. Certainly the unemployment rate in July 2005 had been stable over several quarters at 4.8% with 864,900 claimants whereas at June 2006 this had risen to 5.3% with a claimant count of 950,900.
In the South East the employment rate is flat with small changes over the year but shows a rate of 78.8% against the national figure of 74.7%. Of concern however is the unemployment rate at 4.6% showing a full 1.0% increase over the year, and this appears to be a clear trend.
The South East region is a proven area of economic success, despite the fact that it has severely deprived areas, around the southern and eastern coastal strip and this has resulted in the region being deemed as wealthy within national administration and funding has been duly restricted in favour of other regions, particularly in the north of the country.
Population growth within the South East region aged 16+ has been continuing and this has been showing an annual growth of around 53,000 people (male and female). Some of this is due to a maturing population but much of it is the success of the area attracting an influx of population from outside of the region and in particular from Eastern Europe. Southampton now has one of the bigger Polish communities in the UK.
Inevitably this growth in population is putting greater pressure on services within the South East region.
Conversely in constricting economic times now that the world and the UK in particular has had a long cycle of expansion the current economic restrictions and aging “baby boomer” population the impact of these factors on the South East is proving to make it a victim of its own success.
When compared to the UK as a whole in terms of measurement of a % of impact the economic pressures on the South East have actually triggered a greater impact on unemployment and the economically inactive.
When viewed in this perspective the vulnerability of the costs, population pressures and influx of migrants from Europe and the UK created conflicting forces which in the long term may prove to be unsustainable.
When viewed against the % proportion of economic growth in the UK as a whole compared to the South East clearly demonstrates the South East Region is probably the country leader when it comes to economic growth and encouragement of the entrepreneur.
Having viewed the SE ability to work against the odds and have a proportionally greater increase in economic activity despite the greater increases proportionally in unemployment we find this also applies to the economically inactive. Comments will be made later on this report on the impact of Incapacity Benefit in particular on this figure but it must be accepted that the attracted wealth with the South East and growing retired population will also have an impact.
Changing legislation to age has an impact that has yet to be understood (introduction October 2006), together with the pressure on pensions and the now re-emerging threat of inflation.
There is little doubt however that this will increase infrastructure costs and pressures on the South East economy.
*All statistics are drawn from the Office of National Statistics Labour Force Survey June 2006 and compared with the same statistics from the July 2005 figures to establish the changing trend..
